The most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2602 surged to the daily limit before the midday break after hitting an intraday high, and it is advisable to maintain cautious and rational trading. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On January 12, 2026, SHFE tin futures prices rose sharply, with the most-traded contract SN2602 hitting the upper limit before market close after surging during the session. This movement was primarily driven by the strength in LME tin and the overall bullish sentiment in the commodity market, while global visible inventory at historical lows also provided support. However, risks of a pullback from high levels warrant caution. On the demand side, the current high prices have significantly suppressed actual demand in the spot market, with downstream players largely adhering to just-in-time procurement, leading to narrowed premiums and a situation of "nominal prices without actual transactions." The traditional consumer electronics sector is in the off-season, with weak orders from solder enterprises, reflecting insufficient demand-side resilience. Supply side, potential production resumptions could create downward pressure; for instance, accelerated resumption of mining operations in Myanmar or loosened export policies in Indonesia may alleviate current supply concerns. Additionally, macro sentiment also faces reversal risks. If expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are delayed, boosting the US dollar, it would pressure dollar-denominated tin prices. Meanwhile, the rapid price surge has also built up technical correction pressure from profit-taking by investors. Overall, although low inventory and event-driven factors support short-term price strength, the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand, potential supply recovery, and macro uncertainties collectively constitute potential downside risks for the market. Close attention should be paid to substantive changes in these factors going forward.